What is the reason for Israel’s new threats against Hezbollah?
The situation in Lebanon has become highly tense over the past few days. The Zionist regime carries out daily attacks on the southern and eastern parts of the country under false pretexts. This has escalated to the point where Joseph Aoun, the President of Lebanon who also holds the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces, has ordered Rudolf Hikal, the Commander of the Lebanese Army, to confront Israeli forces in the south—an order that has been welcomed by the Resistance and the people of Lebanon.
Mohammad Ali Hassannia – Journalist:
The situation in Lebanon has become highly tense over the past few days. The Zionist regime carries out daily attacks on the southern and eastern parts of the country under false pretexts. This has escalated to the point where Joseph Aoun, the President of Lebanon who also holds the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces, has ordered Rudolf Hikal, the Commander of the Lebanese Army, to confront Israeli forces in the south—an order that has been welcomed by the Resistance and the people of Lebanon.
The Israeli think tank Alma Israel has published an interesting report on the Lebanese Resistance’s reconstruction capabilities. The think tank writes that Hezbollah is accelerating its reconstruction processes. The local production and repair of weapons has been placed on Hezbollah’s agenda.
According to this Israeli think tank, significant infrastructure of the “Land of Tunnels” remains intact; many tactical (regional) tunnels, underground infrastructure, as well as strategic tunnels belonging to Hezbollah are still undamaged. On the other hand, the Israelis believe that the Lebanese government lacks both the will and the capability to genuinely confront Hezbollah for disarmament.
Lebanon’s primary force for “disarmament,” the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), is highly constrained in its operations and is neither willing nor able to confront Hezbollah. This is because the army’s demographics indicate that approximately 45% of its soldiers are Shia, with some estimates putting this figure at around 60%.
The Zionist regime believes that Hezbollah’s efforts to continue the land-based shipment of weapons and equipment via Syria are ongoing, and that maritime transfer routes have even been activated in some cases. According to Israeli assessments, Hezbollah is developing a combined military-industrial strategy which, at its core, aims for the local and domestic production of weapons. This strategy was previously tested and successfully implemented by Hamas. Israelis believe that the new situation requires Hezbollah to “bring weapons production factories into Lebanon.”
Hezbollah has reached the understanding that the ability to produce weapons domestically will enhance the military capabilities of the movement. Lebanon’s tunnels, which host weapons production and assembly workshops, secure storage facilities, and command centers, are not only still standing but are also being rebuilt and expanded. This demonstrates the principle of concealing industrial capability within a decentralized, underground infrastructure, making its complete destruction a very difficult and protracted task. According to an assessment by Yoav Gallant, Israel’s Defense Minister, approximately 60% of the tunnel system in the Gaza Strip remains undestroyed, and this figure is significantly higher for Lebanon.
Israel has concluded that Hezbollah’s future threat is a dangerous combination of two models. In their assessment, on one hand, Hezbollah will strive to adopt the resilience, decentralization, and ability to produce large quantities of simple munitions, as demonstrated by Hamas.
On the other hand, it will continue to develop and strive to produce strategic and precision-guided weapon systems capable of threatening Israel’s vital infrastructure.
Hezbollah is accelerating its reconstruction efforts, particularly in the area north of the Litani River, which will be under the command of its Badr Unit. Prior to the Israel-Lebanon war, the central command for this area was south of the Litani, under the Nasr and Aziz combat units. This very situation has led to a fundamental dispute between Israel and the Lebanese government, as according to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, the area south of the Litani River should be disarmed.
However, both operationally and logistically, the Bekaa Valley has remained Hezbollah’s strategic depth. The Bekaa also hosts Hezbollah’s training infrastructure, weapons production facilities, and storage sites, including locations for deploying strategic equipment such as missiles and strategic ammunition housed within tunnels. Consequently, the focus of Israel’s aerial attacks on the Bekaa should also be analyzed within this framework.
Source: Khorasan Newspaper. No. 21913. Page 8